Miguel de Icaza thinks 2-3 years out about the competitive implications of Longhorn technologies and Linux on the Desktop. [Via Slashdot]
What I wonder about is: 2-3 years from now exactly who is going to be using “Desktops” anyway? 🙂 Ah, OK. I’m pushing it a bit. But in 2-3 years who is going to be buying new desktops? A shift is well underway to more mobile scenarios.
That’s why ink and Tablets are becoming such a big deal. It’s not that ink is revolutionary in itself and noone has ever tried it before, it’s because there’s a confluence of hardware and software making it practical for a wider audience.
In the Longhorn timeframe, it doesn’t take much to assume that ink will be well integrated with the OS. Combine this with the reasonable assumptions that A) “notebooks” will be the “desktops” of choice and B) the price premium for Tablet features will have nearly vanished and you then begin to think about applications and how users will expect to use them in new ways.
XAML and Avalon very well may rattle Linux world in the IT landscape, but my guess it’s going to be Tablet and other mobile features/needs that challenge Linux in the broader market. And the broader market is where Linux has struggled.