I talked about Tablet PCs a lot at DEMO. Everyone wanted to know if I thought Tablet PCs were going to make it. Or they wanted to share their reasons why they don’t think they will.
Some people have their minds made up. I’m going to over generalize here, but I think the most skeptical were the press and the enterprise-oriented VCs. Their tunes were similar: Tablet PCs aren’t very good and there isn’t going to be much money in them, so never mind. However, it’s not quite as bleak as it might first sound.
On the press side, it’s more that they haven’t found the right Tablet PC for their needs. They need lighter, smaller, more on time, instant-on, outdoor viewing and cheaper. Many of them take handwritten notes. They take what I’d call “quick” notes. That’s why they need instant on. In fact, I don’t think they even would want to be bothered by pressing an On button. They would just want to put a pen to a surface and start writing. I imagine a Vulcan-sized computer would be the right size for many of them.
Another issue is that many from the press tried early Tablet PCs and gave up. They might be open to experimenting with newer models, but someone’s going to have to help them get demo units. I gave Lora a couple names and I know she got on the phone right away trying to get what she could for them. I hope it works out.
Many of the skeptical Tablet PC attendees though seemed to know at least one person that was highly enthusiastic of Tablets, however. I was amazed by home many times I heard this. So the word is spreading.
One great press quote was: “If I don’t have one, it’ll never succeed.” So I asked if he’d tried a Tablet. Only briefly. Maybe he’ll try again when the new models come out. While I was talking with him, he pulled out his aging RIM (commenting how he wanted to upgrade), checked his email, finger-pecked a message on his cell phone, and scribbled some notes on the back of a business card. Yep, there’s something there, I thought.
And all this talk about hardware brings me to another impression I had. Many of the people don’t know about the wide variety of Tablet PC applications out there–or appreciate the potential. DEMO would have been a great show, in fact, to demo Tablet PC applications–they were shown last year I think. Maybe DEMOmobile will have some Tablets. Heck, we need DEMOtablets. We need Walt Mossberg, Jim Louderback, and on and on to see how Tablet applications are reshaping education. It’s not just about handwriting recognition, it’s about connectivity, it’s about applications like ArtRage and xThink.
In terms of the VCs, it’s a tougher struggle. They’re chasing after $200 million dollar ROIs. The big bucks. They’ll go where the big customers go and “consumers” are a four-and-a-half-letter word to many of them. Ah, everyone wants the easy money.
VCs need to see Tablet PC successes or others try their hands at growing successful Tablet PC businesses. Angels are the right scale here and I’m sure they’ll appear in greater and greater numbers as the market grows.
In the meantime, I like how Intel seeds their markets. Their investment arms have been crucial sparks to several new markets. Too bad Intel isn’t as hot on the Tablet PC as Microsoft. I’m a bit surprised why this hasn’t been the case. Tablets are a great match for Centrino technology.
As I drove away from DEMO I kept thinking how great it would have been to have someone from Microsoft evangelizing the Tablet PC at the show. Of course, then I realized that through the efforts of people like Robert Scoble Microsoft did one better–they got me to do it for free. Ah, it’s a clever borg, isn’t it? 🙂