Will Windows 7 multi-touch drivers be a repeat of the Vista driver fiasco?

The announcement of the HP TouchSmart tx Tablet PC with multi-touch support reminds us that there really aren’t any Windows 7 multi-touch drivers available now.

Yes, the days are still early, and a Windows 7 beta isn’t even out, but with Microsoft’s stated desire to release Windows 7 by early 2010 (some have even stated 2009), my concern for whether there will be good multi-touch drivers for us developers and beta testers is growing.

Microsoft appears to be wanting to operate with a condensed schedule here and if this is to be the case, we need multi-touch drivers sooner than later if there’s going to be any hope of us developers and users providing meaningful feedback to the Windows 7 team.

Without this feedback, my concern is that Microsoft is not going to release the best product it can and the followup service pack(s) will cause an inevitable dribble of innovation rather than a solid splash that it should have. Why is this a big deal? After all I’m a strong advocate of incremental engineering. Well, true. However, sometimes there has to be a coordinated strategy or you just don’t get the impact you need when you’re trying to influence how users think and interact with their devices. It’s not that users will have to make huge changes, however, if there are Tablet and multi-touch features in Windows 7 that developers can standardize upon and make everyone’s lives a bit more pleasant, then a coordinated effort is going to be lots more successful than a fragmented one. We don’t need people saying things like, multi-touch is cool, but every app works differently. Or the Math Input Panel rocks, but I don’t have any software that works with it. Or the updated TIP enables me to handwrite better, but I need it to do XYZ or it’s not useful for me.

Of course, here’s the big problem: If there isn’t equipment that people can use today to test the beta versions of Windows, then there isn’t going to be sufficient feedback to provide a rock solid product.

The pessimistic side of me is thinking: the Windows 7 team is on track for a repeat failure here with Vista. It’s going to come down to drivers, drivers, drivers–or at least the lack of them. Will developers and users have to invest in new hardware after Windows 7 ships to really get a good grasp at what touch and Tablet technologies can do together?

If you ask me, there should be a strong Windows 7 driver and developer story already. Let’s say Microsoft is going to launch Windows 7 for the Holiday season next year, winding the clock back there isn’t that much time left for volume feedback from users. Let’s say the shipping date is October. That might imply a production date toward the end of summer. Assuming further a lockdown of the OS for three months we’re talking late spring for final changes–that’s six months or so from now. Six months is enough time for small bug fixes, but nothing significant. And if it takes HP and the like to get solid Windows 7 multi-touch drivers out until let’s say February or so, there’s only a matter of weeks for anyone to see all but the most predominant patterns. And forget about developers and trying to build a community effort for them in this short time.

Now a 2010 launch of Windows 7 would give everyone more time and for the sake of multi-touch this may be a good thing. I just hope that there isn’t confusion like there was with Vista about what date Microsoft is shooting for. If it’s 2010, timing is probably still OK although tight. If we’re talking 2009, then the clock is ticking loudly. It’s time for some clarity.

Yes, it can all be done and it can all work out fine, but after the mess with Vista you’d think Microsoft and its partners would have a much better story here. From what I see we have a hodgepodge.

As a developer, here’s what I’d like to see:

* Microsoft and its partners should release solid multi-touch beta drivers by the time Windows 7 beta is launched–and I mean the same minute, not the following day, week, or month. If Microsoft has to, they should provide the downloads for any beta drivers if the OEMs are reluctant to do so. Microsoft may have to offer to pay the OEMs for this priviledge, but it’s something that needs to be done. Everything has to just work at the base levels.

* Microsoft needs a C++/.NET/WPF/Silverlight developer story and communicate it well. PDC had a little about multi-touch, but that’s not enough. Combined with the Math Input Panel, there’s plenty of innovation going on here and developers need to have time to digest it. I’m not sure if a general conference is the place to do this. I think Microsoft needs to consider putting together a Windows 7 Tablet and Touch Workshop at its campus. I’m thinking of something two or so days long that developers and authors can attend, which has lots of code, lots of presentations, lots of interaction, lots of hardware to experiment with (big and small), and lots of discussion.

* Ideally I’d like to see OEM involvement, but from past experience with Tablet PC efforts I don’t think this is going to happen. There’s too much competitive need for silence. The next best thing is Microsoft to step in and facilitate the flow of Tablet and Touch information. Given the previous suggestion of working with developers to get Tablet/multi-touch products out, Microsoft needs to facilitate their launch and distribution. There are a couple ways of doing this–my favorite is to leverage the community. Why? Because it’s low cost. What I mean here is that Microsoft makes sure that review hardware and software bundles get out to Engadget, etc which showcases the various Tablet/touch apps that people are making. Now this doesn’t just have to be Tablet PC-like hardware. I’m thinking that there should be SmartBoard-level equipment too as well as displays like the HP TouchSmart series. Maybe a demo area at Microsoft’s Bay Area campus or possibly one or two of its regional sales centers would make sense. I guess it would depend on the quality of the software and hardware. Here again, this suggests someone at Microsoft needs to be working on watching this sub-industry and tracking what’s going on.

* Review units are a good first step to reach out to potential customers, but there’s more that can be done–depending on how motivated Microsoft is. What I’m thinking here is in terms of an online showcase area for Tablet/Touch products–something that only needs to be temporal, that probably lasts three of four months from the launch of Windows 7. I’d also think that if Microsoft really wants to create a splash that it would work with those companies that have great demoable products to take them along to every conference that makes sense–and I mean every one–for the first four of so months. Lots of exposure early on is key. Lots. Get them to trade shows, get videos out, do coop advertising where it makes sense. Showcase great apps as much as you can early on.

* Bounties and marketing dollars. It always comes down to money and this is going to be one more time where it matters. Microsoft needs to consider giving bounties to developers that create products which it at least thinks are important areas to be addressed. If they’d like to see Messenger add-ins with multi-touch, then place a $2500 bounty on an app that gets voted tops in this area. Work with istartedsomething or Gottabemobile to facilitate a voting system like this. And if bounties are too much, then drive marketing dollars. What I’m suggesting here is helping companies advertise, publicise, and communicate their efforts. Personally I’d try to be as frugal as possible here and leverage YouTube and the like, but online ads cost and if Microsoft can help get the word out by awarding marketing funds, that’s all the better. I’m thinking of something short-term and small though–in the range of $5000 per product–just enough to get the ball rolling and a feeling that no matter which direction you look you’re bound to see something intriguing about Tablet/multi-touch when Windows 7 launches. Again, I’m talking about campaigns that would last on the order of a quarter or so. After that, the winners should be clearer and hopefully ones that can sustain themselves.

* Last suggestion: And this one is for all of us outside of Microsoft. Let’s just assume that Microsoft is going to do its thing (focus on major partners, IT, etc, etc) and we’re going to have to do ours (focus on consumers, verticals, etc, etc). So how about at CES we put some time into thinking about what we can do collectively to encourage the adoption of innovative Tablet/touch products this coming year and maybe we can find a way to make it happen. Should we seek out some sponsors and have our own Tablet/touch user-oriented event(s)? Is it time? Or maybe we could coordinate with the Windows 7 launch team–I’m assuming there is one–that’ll put together regional events at launch time and try to be sure that at each and every event that there’s very good exposure for Tablet/Touch. Just thinking.

There’s only one chance to make a first impression and Microsoft needs to be sure to hit the ground running with Windows 7. There’s absolutely no reason to put up with three or four months of dribbling, so-so press and online chatter about partial-or-any-day-now multi-touch support. There’s lots of potential here and I hope Microsoft and its partners take advantage of it.