Scoble responds to Gartenberg’s assertion that a perfect storm of marketing disarray is brewing around Microsoft’s OS product line.
First, I agree that if Longhorn stumbles to market (much like what happened during the transition to a 32-bit Windows OS) that Windows natives will get restless. But I think this suggests the current Longhorn marketing needs to continue to be strong–so we can see the payoff in what’s coming next.
In terms of today, yep, products can’t get lost in the transition. The Service Pack 2 release–which includes dramatically improved recognition/handwriting input for the Tablet PC–is one example. This alone is going to awaken a new world of Tablet users. As a result of the new TIP in Service Pack 2, more apps are going to feel natural on the Tablet. And on the development side, Service Pack 2 opens up new ink programming possibilities–by allowing ink winforms in IE (what about an Ink Wiki!?) and the new real-time stylus which adds a more efficient and powerful processing pipeline to pen input. And then there’s the next version of InfoPath. That’s going to shake things up too.
In the near term, my real concern is with a different type of marketing–not marketing with respect to sales per se–but in terms of getting the message out about the added trustworthiness of SP2/Windows. Service Pack 2 is going to be a big download with a much stronger security model. It’s going to be a big upgrade for many home users. For instance, I have no doubt it’s going to rattle my 70 year-old neighbor for a bit. I know I’m going to get calls why new dialog boxes pop up and why this or that is different. The IE popup blocker alone is going to throw her for a loop. At the same time she knows very well the dangers of viruses and the like–even though to this day she still does not have an anti-virus program. (All of her equipment is hand-me downs.) So although I’m sure she’ll go along with installing Service Pack 2–actually I’ll probably have to do it–I’ll have to work through the changes with her, and I’ll still have to try to convince her to get an anti-virus program which I know she’d rather not purchase. It’s getting her to appreciate the value of Service Pack 2 that I think is at issue. When SP2 comes out, it needs to be blasted everywhere–on the morning shows, on local news programs, everywhere. Not in terms of a crisis, but in terms of the value it provides for better securing your small business and home computer. In fact, there need to be local events to work through installing and configuring SP2 for small businesses. Small businesses need to understand how it impacts what they do and how it benefits them. They need to understand how to manage the application exceptions on the firewall for instance. They need to understand which anti-virus programs integrate well with its new single security console. Unfortunately, the primary and simplified message should be about security/trustworthiness issues–and I hope a separate Tablet PC message is loud enough in parallel that describes the value of the new TPC features. This is going to be a tough challenge.
No matter. I’m expecting I’ll be helping a lot of people with SP2–not necessarily because it’s a big problem to install–but because it changes the systems people have become dependent on. They ultimately don’t want to get bogged down in any more details than they have to–so they’ll call upon me to help them out. My goal is to help them make the transition as effortlessly and quickly as possible, but also see the top one or two things that’s going to make their lives better at the same time.
My guess is Tablet users will run to SP2 (because of the new TIP), but it’s the broader market which I’m not so sure about. It’s going to be an interesting time once SP2 is available.