Even though UMPC devices were announced at CeBit a week back, there’s still a lot of speculation going on about them. Why? As Dennis Rice points out, without any shipping products, complete specs, and more info on these products we’re having to do a lot of guessing. It sounds like we’ll be guessing for at least another month or so as the first devices start coming in.
One thing that concerns me is where are people going to be purchasing UMPCs? Online? At Best Buy? Broad channel distribution has been a problem that has plagued the Tablet market. I hope UMPCs don’t fall into the same thin distribution path. In fact, are there going to be enough devices to support a channel program? Are we going to see UMPCs at a couple hundred Best Buy stores and that’s it? Hmmm.
Along these lines, I hope that we’ll see some of the OEMs release a Linux or no-OS system. The cost savings can make a difference in sales–which will be so critical early on. And my guess is that without a cheaper solution we’re not going to be seeing UMPCs in let’s say Frys.
OK, here’s where I’m quite excited though to see how all this unfolds. As Layne points out, there’s the Intel factor.
Intel works with System Builders (read that as tons of small businesses)–which is a key distribution channel for Intel. (The small business channel outsells Dell in terms of processors, for instance. Yes, it’s that big.) If Intel can leverage its channel to evangelize UMPCs, we might see some amazing things evolve in the market. If Intel doesn’t step to the plate and the UMPC follows the path set forth by Tablets, then I might expect to see numbers that blow away let’s say the Apple Newton, but not people’s high expectations.
Everything I’m describing here is about the mechanics of product distribution. It is important, but don’t get me wrong, the value of UMPC devices and services are going to be the main factors that decide the growth rate of UMPCs.
As with Tablets, here are some things I’d like to see when I purchase an UMPC:
* Get one to three months free of a TV/movie download service or a discount on the device if I sign up for a year.
* Get an hour or more of included Skype minutes
* Street and Trips/GPS bundle
* EVDO-style solution and discount on the device for signing up for a contract
There are other bundling possibilities too. These are just a few.
So far, outside of a shortcut to MovieLink in the Touch Pack, I haven’t heard much about consumer bundles like these. I hope they’re coming.
Without them I do see a welcome niche for UMPC devices, however. There are companies that could use mini-Tablets in their trucks, on their factory floors, and elsewhere as they move about. My suggestion to anyone involved with these devices is: If you can’t get the distribution, sell to the IT markets that Tablets are in. Sell them to schools. Keep it simple. Don’t push a ton of products out to consumer channels if there aren’t the services and consumer value that’s going to inspire the market.